NASA Workshop on Distributed Parameter Modeling and Control of Flexible Aerospace Systems

Although significant advances have been made in modeling and controlling flexible systems, there remains a need for improvements in model accuracy and in control performance. The finite element models of flexible systems are unduly complex and are almost intractable to optimum parameter estimation for refinement using experimental data. Distributed parameter or continuum modeling offers some advantages and some challenges in both modeling and control. Continuum models often result in a significantly reduced number of model parameters, thereby enabling optimum parameter estimation. The dynamic equations of motion of continuum models provide the advantage of allowing the embedding of the control system dynamics, thus forming a complete set of system dynamics. There is also increased insight provided by the continuum model approach

Considering sex as a biological variable in preclinical research

Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/154390/1/fsb2fj201600781r.pd

The burden of asthma, hay fever and eczema in children in 25 countries: GAN Phase I study

AIMS: There have been no worldwide standardised surveys of prevalence and severity of asthma, rhinoconjunctivitis and eczema in school children for 15 years. The present study aims to provide this information. METHODS: Following the exact International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) methodology (cross-sectional questionnaire-based survey), Global Asthma Network (GAN) Phase I was carried out between 2015 and 2020 in many centres worldwide. RESULTS: The study included 157 784 adolescents (13-14 years of age) in 63 centres in 25 countries and 101 777 children (6-7 years of age) in 44 centres in 16 countries. The current prevalence of symptoms, respectively, was 11.0% and 9.1% for asthma, 13.3% and 7.7% for rhinoconjunctivitis and 6.4% and 5.9% for eczema. The prevalence of asthma ever was 10.5% and 7.6%, hay fever ever was 15.2% and 11.1% and eczema ever was 10.6% and 13.4%, respectively. Centres in low or lower middle gross national income countries (LICs or LMICs) had significantly lower prevalence of the three disease symptoms and diagnoses (except for hay fever). In children, the prevalence of asthma and rhinoconjunctivitis symptoms was higher in boys, while the reverse occurred among adolescents. For eczema, while the prevalence among female adolescents was double that of males, there was no sex difference among children. Centre accounted for non-negligible variability in all disease symptoms (10-20%). CONCLUSION: The burdens of asthma, rhinoconjunctivitis and eczema vary widely among the limited number of countries studied. Although symptom prevalence is lower in LICs and LMICs, it represents a considerable burden everywhere studied

Effects of mental health self-efficacy on outcomes of a mobile phone and web intervention for mild-to-moderate depression, anxiety and stress: secondary analysis of a randomised controlled trial.

Background: Online psychotherapy is clinically effective yet why, how, and for whom the effects are greatest remain largely unknown. In the present study, we examined whether mental health self-efficacy (MHSE), a construct derived from Bandura’s Social Learning Theory (SLT), influenced symptom and functional outcomes of a new mobile phone and web-based psychotherapy intervention for people with mild-to-moderate depression, anxiety and stress. Methods: STUDY I: Data from 49 people with symptoms of depression, anxiety and/or stress in the mild-to-moderate range were used to examine the reliability and construct validity of a new measure of MHSE, the Mental Health Self-efficacy Scale (MHSES). STUDY II: We conducted a secondary analysis of data from a recently completed randomised controlled trial (N = 720) to evaluate whether MHSE effected post-intervention outcomes, as measured by the Depression, Anxiety and Stress Scales (DASS) and Work and Social Adjustment Scale (WSAS), for people with symptoms in the mild-to-moderate range. Results: STUDY I: The data established that the MHSES comprised a unitary factor, with acceptable internal reliability (Cronbach’s alpha = .89) and construct validity. STUDY II: The intervention group showed significantly greater improvement in MHSE at post-intervention relative to the control conditions (p’s < = .000). MHSE mediated the effects of the intervention on anxiety and stress symptoms. Furthermore, people with low pre-treatment MHSE reported the greatest post-intervention gains in depression, anxiety and overall distress. No effects were found for MHSE on work and social functioning. Conclusion: Mental health self-efficacy influences symptom outcomes of a self-guided mobile phone and web-based psychotherapeutic intervention and may itself be a worthwhile target to increase the effectiveness and efficiency of online treatment programs

Trends in eczema prevalence in children and adolescents: A Global Asthma Network Phase I Study

Background: Eczema (atopic dermatitis) is a major global public health issue with high prevalence and morbidity. Our goal was to evaluate eczema prevalence over time, using standardized methodology. Methods: The Global Asthma Network (GAN) Phase I study is an international collaborative study arising from the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Children (ISAAC). Using surveys, we assessed eczema prevalence, severity, and lifetime prevalence, in global centres participating in GAN Phase I (2015–2020) and one/ both of ISAAC Phase I (1993–1995) and Phase III (2001–2003). We fitted linear mixed models to estimate 10‐yearly prevalence trends, by age group, income, and region. Results: We analysed GAN Phase I data from 27 centres in 14 countries involving 74,361 adolescents aged 13–14 and 47,907 children aged 6–7 (response rate 90%, 79%). A median of 6% of children and adolescents had symptoms of current eczema, with 1.1% and 0.6% in adolescents and children, respectively, reporting symptoms of severe eczema. Over 27 years, after adjusting for world region and income, we estimated small overall 10‐year increases in current eczema prevalence (adolescents: 0.98%, 95% CI 0.04%–1.92%; children: 1.21%, 95% CI 0.18%–2.24%), and severe eczema (adolescents: 0.26%, 95% CI 0.06%–0.46%; children: 0.23%, 95% CI 0.02%–0.45%) with larger increases in lifetime prevalence (adolescents: 2.71%, 95% CI 1.10%–4.32%; children: 3.91%, 95% CI 2.07%–5.75%). There was substantial heterogeneity in 10‐year change between centres (standard deviations 2.40%, 0.58%, and 3.04%), and strong evidence that some of this heterogeneity was explained by region and income level, with increases in some outcomes in high‐income children and middle‐income adolescents. Conclusions: There is substantial variation in changes in eczema prevalence over time by income and region. Understanding reasons for increases in some regions and decreases in others will help inform prevention strategies

Worldwide time trends in prevalence of symptoms of rhinoconjunctivitis in children: Global Asthma Network Phase I.

BACKGROUND: The Global Asthma Network (GAN), by using the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) methodology, has updated trends in prevalence of symptoms of childhood allergic diseases, including non-infective rhinitis and conjunctivitis ("rhinoconjunctivitis") which is reported here. METHODS: Prevalence and severity of rhinoconjunctivitis were assessed by questionnaire among schoolchildren in GAN Phase I and ISAAC Phases I and III surveys 15-23 years apart. Absolute rates of change in prevalence were estimated for each centre and modelled by multi-level linear regression to compare trends by age group, time period and per-capita national income. RESULTS: 27 GAN centres in 14 countries surveyed 74,361 13-14-year-olds ("adolescents") and 45,434 6-7-year-olds ("children"), with average response proportions of 90% and 79% respectively. Many centres showed highly significant (p<0.001) changes in prevalence of rhinoconjunctivitis in the past year ("current rhinoconjunctivitis"), compared to ISAAC. The direction and magnitude of centre-level trends varied significantly (p<0.001) both within and between countries. Overall, current rhinoconjunctivitis prevalence decreased slightly from ISAAC Phase III to GAN: -1.32% per 10 years, 95%CI [-2.93%, +0.30%] among adolescents; -0.44% [-1.29%, +0.42%] among children. Together, these differed significantly (p<0.001) from the upward trend within ISAAC. Among adolescents, centre-level trends in current rhinoconjunctivitis were highly correlated with those for eczema symptoms (rho=0.72, p<0.0001) but not with centre-level trends in asthma symptoms (rho=0.15, p=0.48). Among children, these correlations were positive but not significant. CONCLUSION: Symptoms of non-infective rhinoconjunctivitis among schoolchildren may no longer be on the increase globally, although trends vary substantially within and between countries

Maternal High Fat Diet Is Associated with Decreased Plasma n–3 Fatty Acids and Fetal Hepatic Apoptosis in Nonhuman Primates

To begin to understand the contributions of maternal obesity and over-nutrition to human development and the early origins of obesity, we utilized a non-human primate model to investigate the effects of maternal high-fat feeding and obesity on breast milk, maternal and fetal plasma fatty acid composition and fetal hepatic development. While the high-fat diet (HFD) contained equivalent levels of n-3 fatty acids (FA's) and higher levels of n-6 FA's than the control diet (CTR), we found significant decreases in docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) and total n-3 FA's in HFD maternal and fetal plasma. Furthermore, the HFD fetal plasma n-6∶n-3 ratio was elevated and was significantly correlated to the maternal plasma n-6∶n-3 ratio and maternal hyperinsulinemia. Hepatic apoptosis was also increased in the HFD fetal liver. Switching HFD females to a CTR diet during a subsequent pregnancy normalized fetal DHA, n-3 FA's and fetal hepatic apoptosis to CTR levels. Breast milk from HFD dams contained lower levels of eicosopentanoic acid (EPA) and DHA and lower levels of total protein than CTR breast milk. This study links chronic maternal consumption of a HFD with fetal hepatic apoptosis and suggests that a potentially pathological maternal fatty acid milieu is replicated in the developing fetal circulation in the nonhuman primate

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019 : a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66–2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17–2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5–137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0–146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2–144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4–27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8–67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8–74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5–51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7–59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1–10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3–6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0–6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5–8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1–60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8–66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019

Measuring routine childhood vaccination coverage in 204 countries and territories, 1980-2019 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020, Release 1

Background Measuring routine childhood vaccination is crucial to inform global vaccine policies and programme implementation, and to track progress towards targets set by the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) and Immunization Agenda 2030. Robust estimates of routine vaccine coverage are needed to identify past successes and persistent vulnerabilities. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020, Release 1, we did a systematic analysis of global, regional, and national vaccine coverage trends using a statistical framework, by vaccine and over time. Methods For this analysis we collated 55 326 country-specific, cohort-specific, year-specific, vaccine-specific, and dosespecific observations of routine childhood vaccination coverage between 1980 and 2019. Using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, we produced location-specific and year-specific estimates of 11 routine childhood vaccine coverage indicators for 204 countries and territories from 1980 to 2019, adjusting for biases in countryreported data and reflecting reported stockouts and supply disruptions. We analysed global and regional trends in coverage and numbers of zero-dose children (defined as those who never received a diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis [DTP] vaccine dose), progress towards GVAP targets, and the relationship between vaccine coverage and sociodemographic development. Findings By 2019, global coverage of third-dose DTP (DTP3; 81.6% [95% uncertainty interval 80.4-82 .7]) more than doubled from levels estimated in 1980 (39.9% [37.5-42.1]), as did global coverage of the first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1; from 38.5% [35.4-41.3] in 1980 to 83.6% [82.3-84.8] in 2019). Third- dose polio vaccine (Pol3) coverage also increased, from 42.6% (41.4-44.1) in 1980 to 79.8% (78.4-81.1) in 2019, and global coverage of newer vaccines increased rapidly between 2000 and 2019. The global number of zero-dose children fell by nearly 75% between 1980 and 2019, from 56.8 million (52.6-60. 9) to 14.5 million (13.4-15.9). However, over the past decade, global vaccine coverage broadly plateaued; 94 countries and territories recorded decreasing DTP3 coverage since 2010. Only 11 countries and territories were estimated to have reached the national GVAP target of at least 90% coverage for all assessed vaccines in 2019. Interpretation After achieving large gains in childhood vaccine coverage worldwide, in much of the world this progress was stalled or reversed from 2010 to 2019. These findings underscore the importance of revisiting routine immunisation strategies and programmatic approaches, recentring service delivery around equity and underserved populations. Strengthening vaccine data and monitoring systems is crucial to these pursuits, now and through to 2030, to ensure that all children have access to, and can benefit from, lifesaving vaccines. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.Peer reviewe

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens